National averages say 6–8 years. But the real answer depends on your city — and some markets look completely different from others.
The national rent vs. buy break-even of 6–8 years is nearly useless on its own. What matters is your city — because the ratio of home prices to rents varies enormously across US markets, and that ratio drives everything.
The price-to-rent ratio is simple: divide the median home price by the annual rent for a comparable property. A ratio of 20 means buying costs 20 years' worth of rent. The lower the ratio, the faster buying pays off — and the more favorable the local market is for buyers.
As a rule of thumb: below 15 strongly favors buying; 15–20 favors buying with a long horizon; 20–25 is a toss-up; above 25 usually favors renting and investing the difference.
The cities where buying makes the clearest financial sense are concentrated in the Midwest and South — where home prices are moderate relative to rent, and break-even years are often under 5 years even at today's rates.
| City | Price-to-rent ratio | Est. break-even (at 6.8%) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland, OH | 11 | 3–4 years | Strong buy |
| Detroit, MI | 12 | 3–4 years | Strong buy |
| Memphis, TN | 13 | 4 years | Strong buy |
| Dallas, TX | 16 | 4–5 years | Favors buying |
| Houston, TX | 15 | 4–5 years | Favors buying |
| Atlanta, GA | 17 | 5 years | Favors buying |
| Charlotte, NC | 18 | 5–6 years | Favors buying |
Cities in the Sunbelt and mid-tier metros have seen rapid price appreciation in recent years, pushing price-to-rent ratios into neutral territory. Buying still makes sense here — but only with a longer time horizon.
| City | Price-to-rent ratio | Est. break-even (at 6.8%) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 18 | 6 years | Buy if staying 6+ yrs |
| Nashville, TN | 20 | 6–7 years | Buy if staying 7+ yrs |
| Phoenix, AZ | 21 | 7 years | Buy if staying 7+ yrs |
| Denver, CO | 24 | 8–9 years | Borderline — run numbers |
| Miami, FL | 23 | 8 years | Borderline — run numbers |
In the most expensive coastal markets, renting and investing the down payment and monthly savings difference frequently outperforms buying — even over 10-year horizons. The math only changes if you have exceptional down payment size, expect well-above-average appreciation, or plan to stay 15+ years.
| City | Price-to-rent ratio | Est. break-even (at 6.8%) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles, CA | 33 | 14+ years | Renting often wins |
| San Francisco, CA | 38 | 16+ years | Renting wins clearly |
| New York, NY | 34 | 14+ years | Renting often wins |
| Seattle, WA | 28 | 11–12 years | Renting usually wins |
| Boston, MA | 26 | 10–11 years | Borderline/renting |
Important caveat: These break-even estimates assume average home price appreciation of 3–4% annually, consistent rent increases, and investing alternative savings at 7% annually. Actual results vary significantly with local market dynamics — use these as starting points, not conclusions.
Market averages are useful context, but they can't tell you your answer. Your break-even depends on your specific home price, your down payment, the exact rent vs. mortgage comparison, local property taxes, and what you'd do with the money otherwise. Plug your numbers into the calculator below — it takes 90 seconds and gives you a real answer instead of a national average.